ArcelorMittal S.A.

Line items

• EAF + renewable electricity (like Hybrit/SSAB) would have avoided blast furnace vulnerability to the 2022 TTF spike that forced EU plant shutdowns

  Saving$2.8B

  Sources:

  • ArcelorMittal Full Year 2022 Results
  • ArcelorMittal Corporate Climate Assessment 2024

  Assumptions:

  • TTF natural gas peak price during 2022 crisis

    350 EUR/MWh

    Scope: Line items 1

    TTF front-month futures hit 350 EUR/MWh in August 2022, up from ~15 EUR/MWh pre-invasion. Blast furnace operations require large natural gas volumes for heating and are uneconomic above ~100 EUR/MWh.

    ArcelorMittal Full Year 2022 Results

  • European crude steel curtailment volume in H2 2022

    4.5 Mt crude steel

    Scope: Line items 1

    ArcelorMittal idled blast furnaces at Bremen, Hamburg, Asturias, and Krakow in H2 2022. Estimated ~4.5 Mt of its ~25 Mt European capacity was curtailed at an average margin of ~$620/t.

    Internal estimate: Estimated from ArcelorMittal press releases on individual BF idlings across Germany, Spain, and Poland, cross-referenced with Eurofer production statistics showing ~10% EU-wide crude steel decline in H2 2022.

  ◐Medium — ArcelorMittal idled blast furnaces across Germany, Spain, and Poland in H2 2022. Revenue loss estimated from ~4.5 Mt curtailed European crude steel at average margin of ~$620/t.

• DRI-EAF conversion would have eliminated coking coal dependency exposed by the 2026 Hormuz 55% price surge

  Saving$1.9B

  Sources:

  • Strait of Hormuz Crisis Sends Oil Above $118 as Shipping Reroutes
  • ArcelorMittal 2024 Sustainability Report

  Assumptions:

  • Coking coal price increase during 2026 Hormuz crisis

    55 percent increase

    Scope: Line items 2

    Brent spike from $65 to $118/bbl during the Feb-Mar 2026 Hormuz crisis drove seaborne coking coal prices up ~55% as shipping and energy costs surged. ArcelorMittal imports ~27 Mt coking coal annually.

    Strait of Hormuz Crisis Sends Oil Above $118 as Shipping Reroutes

  • Blast furnace energy intensity

    18 GJ/t crude steel

    Scope: Line items 2

    BF-BOF steelmaking consumes ~18 GJ/t crude steel vs ~3-5 GJ/t for scrap-based EAF. This 4x energy intensity multiplier is what makes BF operations acutely crisis-vulnerable.

    IEA Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap

  ◐Medium — Brent spike to $118/bbl drove seaborne coking coal and thermal coal prices up 40-60%. Applied to ArcelorMittal's ~45 Mt BF-BOF steel requiring ~0.6t coking coal per tonne steel plus massive electricity needs.

• EAF operations shielded from both crises: avoided cost on 25% of production

  Cost-$0.7B

  Sources:

  • ArcelorMittal 2024 Sustainability Report
  • IEA Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap

  Assumptions:

  • EAF production volume shielded from coking coal spikes

    15 Mt steel

    Scope: Line items 3

    ArcelorMittal's ~15 Mt EAF production (25% of total 60 Mt) uses scrap metal instead of coking coal, providing structural shielding from fossil fuel price spikes.

    ArcelorMittal 2024 Sustainability Report

  ◐Medium — EAF steel using scrap and electricity was partially shielded from coking coal price spikes. ArcelorMittal's ~15 Mt EAF production avoided the worst crisis cost exposure, though electricity prices also rose.

• On-site renewable generation at European EAF mills would have locked in $40-60/MWh vs $250+/MWh crisis grid prices

  Saving$0.6B

  Sources:

  • Stop the Steel: ArcelorMittal Backpedals on Decarbonisation
  • IEA Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap

  Assumptions:

  • Potential on-site renewable self-generation at European EAF mills

    6 TWh/yr

    Scope: Line items 4

    Estimated potential solar and wind capacity at ArcelorMittal's European EAF sites. During 2022, grid electricity prices surged to $250+/MWh; self-generated renewable power would have cost $40-60/MWh.

    Internal estimate: Estimated from ArcelorMittal's European EAF mill footprints and industrial solar/wind potential assessments by national energy agencies for comparable industrial sites.

  ○Low — If ArcelorMittal had installed on-site solar/wind at European EAF mills pre-2022, those facilities would have been shielded from TTF-linked electricity price spikes. Estimate based on ~6 TWh potential self-generation at $80/MWh grid premium during crisis.

• DRI-EAF conversion capex required to prevent future crisis exposure

  Cost$3.5B

  Sources:

  • ArcelorMittal Corporate Climate Assessment 2024
  • IEA Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap

  Assumptions:

  • DRI-EAF conversion annualised capex

    3.5 USD billion/yr

    Scope: Line items 5

    Annualised from ArcelorMittal's stated $10B European DRI investment plan over 2024-2030, scaled to include global operations. This structural shift would eliminate BF dependence on coking coal and reduce crisis vulnerability.

    Internal estimate: Annualised from ArcelorMittal's stated $10B European DRI investment plan spread across 2024-2030, scaled globally to include hydrogen supply chain infrastructure.

  ◐Medium — Annualised cost of converting blast furnaces to DRI-EAF to structurally reduce crisis vulnerability. Based on ArcelorMittal's own $10B European estimate plus global scope.