Glencore plc

Sector: mining

Estimated missed savings vs. renewable-transition baseline · 2022–2026

Glencore plc could have saved $3B.

Here's the receipt.

We modelled what Glencore would have saved if it had undertaken a sustainability transformation before the 2022 and 2026 energy crises. Three transformation paths: (1) renewable PPAs for smelters at $40/MWh would have avoided curtailment when TTF hit $350/MWh, (2) managed coal decline would have avoided the $7B EVR acquisition into a market renewables were already undercutting, and (3) renewable-powered mine sites would have been insulated from the 2026 Hormuz diesel surge. Glencore's $17B coal EBITDA in 2022 masked the structural problem: it profited from the crisis that proved renewables are the hedge. Net figure subtracts coal sustaining capex and hypothetical renewable build-out costs.

THE PRICE OF ACTING

Remediation cost
$2.3B
Net saving if acted
$700M net if acted
“Less than Glencore's $2.5B 2024 dividend payout. They chose payouts over efficiency.”

Based on 1-2% capex investment in efficiency measures per IEA 2024 benchmarks.

View line-by-line breakdown (5 items)

Line items

  • Renewable PPAs for smelters would have locked in $40/MWh power and avoided curtailment during the 2022 TTF spike to $350/MWh

    Saving$1.8B
    Sources:
    Assumptions:
    • European smelter energy cost blow-out during 2022 TTF spike
      1400 USD million

      Scope: Line items 1

      Glencore's European zinc smelters (Nordenham, Portovesme) and aluminium operations faced power costs exceeding $350/MWh during the TTF spike (15 to 350 EUR/MWh). Curtailment losses plus excess spot procurement costs estimated at $1.4B for the crisis period.

      [1]
    • Renewable PPA counterfactual cost during 2022 crisis
      40 USD/MWh

      Scope: Line items 1

      A pre-2020 vintage European corporate renewable PPA would have locked in ~$40/MWh, saving Glencore's smelters from $350/MWh spot exposure and avoiding curtailment entirely.

      [4]
    Medium — Glencore curtailed zinc smelting at Nordenham and Portovesme in 2022 due to power costs exceeding $350/MWh. A pre-2020 renewable PPA at ~$40/MWh would have avoided curtailment losses and excess spot procurement costs.

  • Managed coal decline pre-2024 would have avoided $7B EVR acquisition into a market renewables were already undercutting

    Saving$2.4B
    Sources:
    Assumptions:
    • Stranded coal asset annual write-down risk
      2400 USD million/yr

      Scope: Line items 2

      ACCR estimates Glencore's coal assets face 30-40% stranding risk over the next decade as renewable deployment (up 45% in 2023-24 post-crisis) undercuts thermal coal. Annualised write-down risk on ~$15B coal asset base including $7B EVR.

      [3]
    Low — ACCR analysis notes Glencore's coal assets face accelerated stranding as post-crisis renewable deployment surged 45% globally in 2023-24. The $7B EVR acquisition deepened exposure just as the market turned.

  • Renewable-powered mine sites and smelters would have been insulated from the 2026 Hormuz diesel/power cost surge of 12.5% YoY

    Saving$0.9B
    Sources:
    Assumptions:
    • Hormuz 2026 mine-site energy cost increase
      12.5 percent YoY

      Scope: Line items 3

      Brent spike from $65 to $118/bbl during Feb-Mar 2026 Hormuz disruption drives 12.5% YoY increase in industrial energy costs. Applied to Glencore's ~$7.2B annual energy spend at mines and smelters.

      [4]
    Low — Brent spike from $65 to $118/bbl in Feb-Mar 2026 directly hits mine-site diesel and grid electricity costs. Renewable-powered mines would have been insulated.

  • Coal mine sustaining capex that would be avoided under managed decline

    Cost$1.5B
    Sources:
    Assumptions:
    • Coal operations sustaining capex
      1500 USD million/yr

      Scope: Line items 4

      Estimated annual sustaining capex for Glencore's thermal and steelmaking coal operations (including EVR), based on coal segment's share of $6.7B total net capex.

      [1]
    Medium — Annual sustaining capex for thermal and steelmaking coal operations including EVR, estimated from Glencore's $6.7B total net capex and coal segment share.

  • Renewable site-energy transition capex for smelters and mines

    Cost$0.6B
    Sources:
    Assumptions:
    • Renewable site-energy transition capex
      600 USD million/yr

      Scope: Line items 5

      Estimated cost of building renewable generation capacity for Glencore's smelter and mine operations, based on IEA utility-scale solar+wind benchmarks.

      [4]
    Low

$3B

Medium

Bleeding

Foolishness score72

Show derivation
  1. Coal windfall dependency during 2022 crisis (record $17B coal EBITDA)Value: 0.9Weight: 0.3[1]
  2. Smelter energy cost surge during 2022 TTF spike (curtailments)Value: 0.8Weight: 0.25[2]
  3. Stranded coal asset risk as renewables undercut thermal coal post-crisisValue: 0.75Weight: 0.2[3]
  4. Hormuz 2026 exposure: coal logistics and smelter energy costs surgingValue: 0.7Weight: 0.15[4]
  5. Scope 1+2 reduction progress (offset)Value: 0.25Weight: 0.1[2]

Formula: Weighted sum of 2022 coal windfall dependency, smelter energy cost exposure during TTF spike, stranded coal asset risk as renewables undercut coal post-crisis, Hormuz 2026 energy cost resurgence, offset by Scope 1+2 reduction progress. Glencore profited from the 2022 crisis but is now trapped: coal demand is cratering as renewables prove cheaper than crisis-priced fossil fuels.

Weights version: v1.0

Deep dive: assumptions, methodology & revision history

Assumptions

  • European smelter energy cost blow-out during 2022 TTF spike
    1400 USD million

    Scope: Line items 1

    Glencore's European zinc smelters (Nordenham, Portovesme) and aluminium operations faced power costs exceeding $350/MWh during the TTF spike (15 to 350 EUR/MWh). Curtailment losses plus excess spot procurement costs estimated at $1.4B for the crisis period.

    [1]
  • Renewable PPA counterfactual cost during 2022 crisis
    40 USD/MWh

    Scope: Line items 1

    A pre-2020 vintage European corporate renewable PPA would have locked in ~$40/MWh, saving Glencore's smelters from $350/MWh spot exposure and avoiding curtailment entirely.

    [4]
  • Stranded coal asset annual write-down risk
    2400 USD million/yr

    Scope: Line items 2

    ACCR estimates Glencore's coal assets face 30-40% stranding risk over the next decade as renewable deployment (up 45% in 2023-24 post-crisis) undercuts thermal coal. Annualised write-down risk on ~$15B coal asset base including $7B EVR.

    [3]
  • Hormuz 2026 mine-site energy cost increase
    12.5 percent YoY

    Scope: Line items 3

    Brent spike from $65 to $118/bbl during Feb-Mar 2026 Hormuz disruption drives 12.5% YoY increase in industrial energy costs. Applied to Glencore's ~$7.2B annual energy spend at mines and smelters.

    [4]
  • Coal operations sustaining capex
    1500 USD million/yr

    Scope: Line items 4

    Estimated annual sustaining capex for Glencore's thermal and steelmaking coal operations (including EVR), based on coal segment's share of $6.7B total net capex.

    [1]
  • Renewable site-energy transition capex
    600 USD million/yr

    Scope: Line items 5

    Estimated cost of building renewable generation capacity for Glencore's smelter and mine operations, based on IEA utility-scale solar+wind benchmarks.

    [4]

Annual revenue

$230.9B

[1]

Methodology

We modelled what Glencore would have saved if it had undertaken a sustainability transformation before the 2022 and 2026 energy crises. Three transformation paths: (1) renewable PPAs for smelters at $40/MWh would have avoided curtailment when TTF hit $350/MWh, (2) managed coal decline would have avoided the $7B EVR acquisition into a market renewables were already undercutting, and (3) renewable-powered mine sites would have been insulated from the 2026 Hormuz diesel surge. Glencore's $17B coal EBITDA in 2022 masked the structural problem: it profited from the crisis that proved renewables are the hedge. Net figure subtracts coal sustaining capex and hypothetical renewable build-out costs.

Revision history

  1. 1av

    Full research-backed rewrite with sourced emissions data from Glencore FY2024, ACCR transition plan analysis, and EU ETS shadow pricing.

  2. 2av

    Crisis-focused rewrite: reframed line items around 2022 TTF smelter curtailments, stranded coal assets post-crisis, and 2026 Hormuz energy cost resurgence. Score increased from 68 to 72.

    • foolishness_score6872
    • net_missed_savings.amount28000000003000000000

Edited by: av

Last reviewed:

Sources

  1. Glencore Preliminary Results 2024 — Glencore plc (accessed 12 Apr 2026)
  2. Glencore 2024 Sustainability Report — Glencore plc (accessed 12 Apr 2026)
  3. ACCR Analysis: Glencore's 2024-2026 Climate Action Transition Plan — Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility (accessed 12 Apr 2026)
  4. World Energy Outlook 2024 — International Energy Agency (accessed 12 Apr 2026)
  5. EU Carbon Price Viewer — Ember (formerly Sandbag) (accessed 12 Apr 2026)