Aggregate missed savings
$47.8B
enough to have powered every home in the EU with rooftop solar for a year — burned instead on fossil fuel dependency during two preventable crises
Deutsche Lufthansa AG
airlines
Bleeding
“Lufthansa burns 10 Mt of jet fuel a year with 0.2% SAF coverage. SAF partnerships with fixed-price offtake would have hedged at least 5% of that volume through both crises. Instead, two geopolitical shocks in four years added $5B in fuel costs with zero renewable buffer.”
Saudi Arabian Oil Company
oil-gas
Bleeding
“Aramco had 50 years to build renewable self-supply and diversify away from Hormuz. Instead it shut its own refineries when a 30-mile strait closed. The world's largest energy company, undone by geography.”
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A.
oil-gas
Exposed
“Petrobras sits in a country with 80% hydro power and the world's cheapest solar — the easiest sustainability transformation in oil. Instead it spent 88% of capex drilling pre-salt. A renewable hedge would have been insurance that paid for itself twice over.”
BASF SE
chemicals
Exposed
“BASF paid EUR 2.2B extra for gas in 2022 because Ludwigshafen still runs on fossil steam. Electrified crackers and renewable self-generation would have turned a crisis into a cost advantage.”
Shell plc
oil-gas
Bleeding
“Shell had $40B in 2022 to invest in the renewable transition that would have made 194 emergency LNG reroutes unnecessary. It scrapped its 2035 target instead. When Hormuz closed, its tankers had nowhere to go.”
BP plc
oil-gas
Bleeding
“BP had $27.7B in 2022 to finish its Beyond Petroleum promise. Instead it paid $2.2B in windfall taxes and cut $5B/yr from renewables. Transformation was the insurance policy it cancelled right before the next crisis hit.”
Eni S.p.A.
oil-gas
Bleeding
“Two crises, one lesson: a sustainability transformation would have been cheaper than scrambling. Eni paid 23x for emergency LNG in 2022, then lost Qatari cargoes in 2026. Renewable self-supply would have hedged both. Plenitude covers 23% — insurance needs 100%.”
A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S
shipping
Hedged
“Maersk's 7 methanol ships sailed through Hormuz on fixed-price green fuel. The other 693 burned bunker at $800/t while rerouting via the Cape. The transformation works; it just needs to scale.”
Glencore plc
mining
Bleeding
“Glencore made $17B from coal in 2022 while shutting its own smelters because it couldn't afford the electricity — then spent $7B buying more coal assets in 2024. A renewable PPA signed in 2020 would have kept those smelters running and saved $1.8B.”
Exxon Mobil Corporation
oil-gas
Fossil Fool
“ExxonMobil had $55.7B in 2022 to build crisis resilience. It spent 2% on clean energy, sued the EU over windfall taxes, then watched its Singapore refinery scramble for crude when Hormuz closed. Transformation was the hedge it refused to buy.”
Chevron Corporation
oil-gas
Bleeding
“Chevron had $35.5B in 2022 to build a diversified supply chain. It chose $75B in buybacks and $2B in clean energy. When jet fuel hit $195/bbl, its airline customers learned the difference between a partner and a liability.”
Rio Tinto Group
mining
Exposed
“Rio Tinto already proved renewable smelting works: Iceland on geothermal at $25/MWh, shielded from every crisis. Converting Australian plants would have been insurance that paid for itself when coal hit $400/t. The blueprint exists in-house.”
TotalEnergies SE
oil-gas
Exposed
“TotalEnergies' 16.8 GW of renewables proved transformation pays for itself when the 2022 gas crisis hit. Its peers saw the proof, tripled their buybacks instead. Hormuz is now charging double the tuition for the same lesson.”
Volkswagen AG
automotive
Exposed
“VW's Wolfsburg plant burned gas through a 350 EUR/MWh spike. Renewable-powered factories and faster EV production would have hedged both energy costs and customer demand shift.”
Equinor ASA
oil-gas
Hedged
“Equinor built floating wind farms and pays $90/tCO2 — then retreated from its own 50% target. The transformation was working. Finishing it would have been insurance that paid for itself. Norway's closest-to-clean fossil company quit at the halfway mark.”
CEMEX S.A.B. de C.V.
cement
Exposed
“CEMEX plants running on biomass rode out the 2022 gas crisis unscathed. The fossil-fired kilns ate $900M in extra fuel. The transformation blueprint was already in the building next door.”
ArcelorMittal S.A.
steel
Bleeding
“ArcelorMittal idled EU blast furnaces when gas spiked in 2022, then watched coking coal surge during Hormuz. EAF steel on renewable power — like Hybrit — would have kept the lights on.”
Dow Inc.
chemicals
Exposed
“Dow rode cheap US gas through the 2022 TTF crisis, then watched Hormuz prove that ethane tracks crude too — feedstock costs up 81%. Electrified crackers and bio-based feedstock would have decoupled margins from both crises. Path2Zero is the right idea, four years late.”
Holcim Ltd
cement
Exposed
“Holcim's plants that switched to biomass rode out the 2022 fuel crisis unscathed — proving the transformation works. The rest ate the same cost blow-out as everyone else. Holcim has the playbook; it just hasn't rolled it out to all 75 Mt of kiln emissions yet.”